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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 21, 2029
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 40+ at 91%, followed by 45+ at 44.5%, 50+ at 35.5%. The market has $24.3K in total volume and $469 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40+ | 91% | — | $4.1K |
| 45+ | 44.5% | — | $1.3K |
| 50+ | 35.5% | +0.5 pts | $11.7K |
| 60+ | 15.5% | — | $2.1K |
| 80+ | 4.5% | — | $3.3K |
| 70+ | 4.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.8K |
Total volume $24.3K · 24h volume $469 · Liquidity $123.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 40+ ■ 45+ ■ 50+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual to be sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J. Trump is the listed age or older on the day on which they are sworn in. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they are sworn in. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth.
In the event that no individual other than Donald J. Trump has been sworn in as President of the United States by March 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official government sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 40+ at 91%, followed by 45+ at 44.5%, 50+ at 35.5%. The market has $24.3K in total volume and $469 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 21, 2029. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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