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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 8, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 35-39 at 37.5%, followed by 40-44 at 31%, 30-34 at 26.5%. The market has $23.9K in total volume and $868 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35-39 | 37.5% | +1.5 pts | $5.6K |
| 40-44 | 31% | +3.5 pts | $6.6K |
| 30-34 | 26.5% | -8.0 pts | $7.1K |
| 25-29 | 10.5% | +0.3 pts | $1.4K |
| 50+ | 3.9% | -2.4 pts | $1.0K |
| <25 | 3.8% | -4.4 pts | $1.3K |
| 45-49 | 1.5% | -6.7 pts | $963 |
Total volume $23.9K · 24h volume $868 · Liquidity $52.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 35-39 ■ 40-44 ■ 30-34 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 35-39 at 37.5%, followed by 40-44 at 31%, 30-34 at 26.5%. The market has $23.9K in total volume and $868 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 8, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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