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Updated October 20, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 8, 2026
As of October 20, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is National 5-10% at 36.2%, followed by National 0-5% at 36%, Labour 0-5% at 26%. The market has $22.2K in total volume and $599 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| National 5-10% | 36.2% | +17.9 pts | $1.4K |
| National 0-5% | 36% | +3.5 pts | $3.5K |
| Labour 0-5% | 26% | -0.5 pts | $1.8K |
| Labour 10-15% | 9.5% | -3.0 pts | $6.0K |
| Labour 15%+ | 5.3% | -1.8 pts | $789 |
| Labour 5-10% | 3.6% | -2.1 pts | $815 |
| National 10%+ | 1.5% | -0.2 pts | $7.6K |
| Another Party Wins | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $451 |
Total volume $22.2K · 24h volume $599 · Liquidity $47.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ National 5-10% ■ National 0-5% ■ Labour 0-5% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 20, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is National 5-10% at 36.2%, followed by National 0-5% at 36%, Labour 0-5% at 26%. The market has $22.2K in total volume and $599 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 8, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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