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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: October 26, 2026
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 675-725T at 47%, followed by 625-675T at 47%, 725T+ at 1.1%. The market has $21.5K in total volume and $3.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 675-725T | 47% | -25.5 pts | $10.3K |
| 625-675T | 47% | +31.5 pts | $2.8K |
| 725T+ | 1.1% | -3.9 pts | $4.0K |
| <575T | 0.7% | -0.4 pts | $1.9K |
| 575-625T | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $2.5K |
Total volume $21.5K · 24h volume $3.7K · Liquidity $2.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 675-725T ■ 625-675T ■ 725T+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total number of tokens processed on OpenRouter for the four weeks of September 28 to October 25, 2026.
The total number of tokens is the sum of the weekly totals displayed in the Top Models chart on OpenRouter's AI Model Rankings page (https://openrouter.ai/rankings#top-models) for the weeks of September 28, October 5, October 12 and October 19, 2026. OpenRouter's weeks run from 12:00 AM UTC on Monday to 11:59 PM UTC on Sunday, and a week's figures continue to update until the following week's figures are first displayed.
This market will resolve according to the totals displayed for those four weeks once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the totals displayed for those four weeks at that time.
This market will resolve based on the totals as displayed on the chart, including any rounding applied by OpenRouter. If the total falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 675-725T at 47%, followed by 625-675T at 47%, 725T+ at 1.1%. The market has $21.5K in total volume and $3.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 26, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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