Home › Polymarket odds › Tech & AI
Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 73.5%, followed by OpenAI at 12.5%, Google at 10.5%. The market has $1.40M in total volume and $14.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 73.5% | +3.0 pts | $168.3K |
| OpenAI | 12.5% | -1.0 pts | $134.5K |
| 10.5% | — | $89.5K | |
| xAI | 2.2% | -1.0 pts | $115.7K |
| Meta | 1.8% | -0.9 pts | $86.3K |
| Alibaba | 0.8% | -0.2 pts | $89.3K |
| DeepSeek | 0.5% | — | $94.7K |
| Z.ai | 0.5% | — | $78.8K |
| Moonshot | 0.4% | — | $95.3K |
| ByteDance | 0.4% | — | $87.3K |
| Baidu | 0.4% | — | $75.4K |
| Mistral | 0.1% | — | $75.6K |
| Microsoft | 0.1% | — | $73.1K |
| Amazon | 0.1% | — | $71.7K |
| Meituan | 0.1% | — | $65.0K |
Total volume $1.40M · 24h volume $14.7K · Liquidity $992.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Anthropic ■ OpenAI ■ Google · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds · Anthropic odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 73.5%, followed by OpenAI at 12.5%, Google at 10.5%. The market has $1.40M in total volume and $14.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Which company has best AI model end of 2026? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026/">Which company has best AI model end of 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Which company has best AI model end of 2026? — Polymarket odds”, September 23, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog