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AI Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 165 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Artificial intelligence: model releases, leaderboard rankings and AI company milestones. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live AI markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Trump renames AI by September 30? | Yes 23.5% | -27.0 pts | $112.9K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of September? | Anthropic 98.5% | +0.2 pts | $89.9K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 89% | +0.5 pts | $39.3K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of September? | Alibaba 90.5% | +0.5 pts | $38.0K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? | 1500+ 83.5% | +11.0 pts | $30.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September? | OpenAI 59% | -11.2 pts | $22.2K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 23.6% | — | $19.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 61.3% | -7.0 pts | $18.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | Yes 13.5% | +7.5 pts | $15.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 73.5% | +3.0 pts | $14.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Next Claude Sonnet released? | By December 31 98.9% | +3.8 pts | $13.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? | By October 23 85.5% | +20.5 pts | $12.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September? | Google 92% | +7.4 pts | $11.8K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut? | 1480+ 78.5% | — | $11.7K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut? | 1470+ 37.5% | +15.0 pts | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which companies will be acquired before 2027? | MGM Resorts 28.5% | — | $10.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? | 1480+ 93% | +1.9 pts | $10.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Gemini 4.0 released? | By November 30 94% | +0.5 pts | $9.5K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? | 1450+ 76% | +11.5 pts | $8.5K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $2.00–$2.25T 23.5% | +4.5 pts | $8.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Grok Model (4.7+): Text Arena Debut? | 1450+ 37% | +0.5 pts | $7.5K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product? | By December 31, 2026 25.5% | -1.5 pts | $7.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31? | Google 27% | -2.0 pts | $7.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Anthropic 88.5% | — | $7.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO? | By June 30, 2027 57% | +1.5 pts | $6.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| GPU rental prices (A100) end of September? | $1.00-$1.25 56.5% | +5.0 pts | $6.7K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 51.5% | -4.4 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes 18.5% | +4.0 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| SB Energy IPO Closing Market Cap | $40B-$50B 41% | +13.5 pts | $6.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? | No release by September 30 91.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.4K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? | 55%+ 88.6% | +4.9 pts | $5.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | Tim Cook 98.2% | +1.9 pts | $5.2K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October? | Anthropic 69% | +5.5 pts | $5.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? | 40%+ 95% | +2.5 pts | $5.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September? | Anthropic 55.5% | -11.9 pts | $4.8K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| SSI public model released by…? | December 31 43% | — | $4.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released? | By October 31 32.5% | -12.0 pts | $4.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? | $800B 79.6% | -2.1 pts | $4.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? | Hodge Conjecture 55.5% | -6.0 pts | $3.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released? | By October 31 83% | +10.5 pts | $3.7K | Oct 31, 2026 |
125 smaller markets are not shown; all 165 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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More Tech & AI odds
OpenAI (68) · Anthropic (55) · Big Tech (171) · Elon Musk (69) · Science & Space (113)
Frequently asked questions
What are the AI odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 165 live AI markets with $723.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Trump renames AI by September 30? (Yes 23.5%), followed by Which company has the best AI model end of September? (Anthropic 98.5%), Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? (↑$1.5T 89%).
How many AI markets are open on Polymarket?
165 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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