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Updated October 5, 2026 · 185 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 185 live AI markets with $725.8K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (Anthropic 48.5%), followed by Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 66.5%), Indiana enacts data center moratorium? (By December 31, 2028 14.5%).
Artificial intelligence: model releases, leaderboard rankings and AI company milestones. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Anthropic 48.5% | -4.0 pts | $107.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Google 66.5% | -2.2 pts | $89.6K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Indiana enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $71.7K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T 30% | +4.9 pts | $48.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI? | By October 31 34.5% | — | $33.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model released? | By November 30 38.5% | — | $25.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Ohio enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25.5% | +1.0 pts | $21.0K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Gemini 4.0 released? | By November 30 96.7% | -1.1 pts | $19.4K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released? | By December 31 93% | -2.0 pts | $15.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Missouri enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25.5% | +2.0 pts | $13.7K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released? | By December 31 99.1% | +0.2 pts | $12.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 50.5% | -5.0 pts | $11.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down? | By December 31 3.5% | -1.1 pts | $11.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? | No solution by Dec 31, 2027 41% | +17.5 pts | $11.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? | $1.75–$2.00T 47.5% | +14.5 pts | $10.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 52.5% | -1.0 pts | $9.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T 93.5% | — | $8.7K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap | 1.5T+ 55.6% | +0.1 pts | $8.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| What will the next Muse model family be named? | Muse Fire 18% | -0.5 pts | $7.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| In which month will Anthropic IPO? | November 2026 63.7% | -0.2 pts | $7.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? | No release by November 1 80.5% | +6.0 pts | $6.9K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Texas enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25.5% | — | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| OpenAI resumes training? | Not resumed by October 20 38% | +7.5 pts | $6.0K | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.0T 96.2% | -0.2 pts | $5.8K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? | 1480+ 35.9% | -8.5 pts | $5.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| GPU rental prices (B200) end of November? | $7.00-$7.50 27.5% | +11.5 pts | $5.5K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) end of November? | $5.50-$6.00 36.9% | +18.6 pts | $5.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Next Gemini Pro Model released? | No release by October 31 83.5% | +7.5 pts | $4.9K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December? | Google 51.5% | +14.0 pts | $4.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution? | By December 31, 2027 62.5% | -12.0 pts | $4.5K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic 91.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.4K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| #2 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On) | Anthropic 32.5% | +4.5 pts | $4.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November? | OpenAI 63.5% | -21.0 pts | $4.1K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of November? | Anthropic 34.5% | -18.0 pts | $3.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December? | Alibaba 22.5% | +9.5 pts | $3.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| # of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? | 3 30.5% | +8.0 pts | $3.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| OpenAI resumes training? | By October 31 68% | -4.5 pts | $3.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut? | 45%+ 95% | +1.5 pts | $2.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ 88.5% | +3.0 pts | $2.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released? | October 21 31% | +21.0 pts | $2.7K | Nov 1, 2026 |
145 smaller markets are not shown; all 185 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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OpenAI (72) · Anthropic (65) · Big Tech (178) · Elon Musk (66) · Science & Space (91)
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 185 live AI markets with $725.8K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (Anthropic 48.5%), followed by Which company has the best AI model end of October? (Google 66.5%), Indiana enacts data center moratorium? (By December 31, 2028 14.5%).
185 live markets as of October 5, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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