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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: May 1, 2028
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ricardo Estigarribia at 15.5%, followed by Miguel Prieto at 12.7%, Pedro Alliana at 12.5%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $478 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Estigarribia | 15.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.4K |
| Miguel Prieto | 12.7% | +10.3 pts | $4.4K |
| Pedro Alliana | 12.5% | — | $5.1K |
| Basilio Núñez | 11.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.7K |
| Arnoldo Wiens | 7.4% | +1.9 pts | $1.9K |
| Raúl Latorre | 5.5% | — | $623 |
| Eduardo Nakayama | 2.1% | — | $694 |
| Juan Carlos Baruja | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $987 |
| Celeste Amarilla | 0.1% | — | $621 |
| Lilian Samaniego | 0.1% | — | $464 |
| Kattya González | 0.1% | — | $458 |
| Luis Pettengill | 0.1% | — | $457 |
| Paraguayo Cubas | 0.1% | — | $424 |
| Alberto Martínez Simón | 0.1% | — | $364 |
| Yolanda Paredes | 0.1% | — | $327 |
Total volume $20.9K · 24h volume $478 · Liquidity $70.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ricardo Estigarribia ■ Miguel Prieto ■ Pedro Alliana · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Paraguayan Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by April 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Paraguay government sources, including the Tribunal Superior de Justicia Electoral (https://www.tsje.gov.py/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ricardo Estigarribia at 15.5%, followed by Miguel Prieto at 12.7%, Pedro Alliana at 12.5%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $478 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is May 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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