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Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 8.5%, followed by By October 24 at 6.5%, By October 21 at 2.5%. The market has $26.9K in total volume and $26.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 8.5% | — | $7.7K |
| By October 24 | 6.5% | — | $9.7K |
| By October 21 | 2.5% | — | $4.9K |
| By October 19 | 1.5% | — | $4.6K |
Total volume $26.9K · 24h volume $26.9K · Liquidity $107.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By October 24 ■ By October 21 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority.
Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above.
Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: France odds · Politics odds
As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 8.5%, followed by By October 24 at 6.5%, By October 21 at 2.5%. The market has $26.9K in total volume and $26.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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