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France Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 36 live markets · refreshed twice a day
France: elections, the government, the prime minister and the presidency. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live France markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 38.4% | — | $188.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Highest temperature in Paris on September 24? | 24°C 38% | — | $15.9K | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? | Marine Le Pen 88.5% | -0.5 pts | $7.3K | Apr 18, 2027 |
| 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? | Jean-Luc Mélenchon 94.8% | +3.5 pts | $5.7K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Lowest temperature in Paris on September 24? | 12°C 32.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.7K | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Paris on September 25? | 27°C 42% | — | $3.3K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee | Raphael Glucksmann 78.5% | +5.5 pts | $2.4K | Apr 17, 2027 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen? | By October 31 14.9% | +4.0 pts | $758 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| SER Seat Count after French Senate Election? | 59-61 47.5% | +3.0 pts | $679 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Lowest temperature in Paris on September 25? | 11°C 36.5% | — | $397 | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election? | 62-64 53.6% | +9.0 pts | $347 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| French Socialist Primary: First Round Winner | Raphaël Glucksmann 87.5% | — | $253 | Oct 10, 2026 |
| National Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election? | 12 26% | — | $217 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? | Dominique de Villepin 59% | -3.5 pts | $93 | Apr 18, 2027 |
| Le Pen names non-Bardella PM? | By April 17, 2027 10.5% | -1.7 pts | $60 | Apr 17, 2027 |
| French Senate Election: 2nd Most Seats? | SER 68% | -0.5 pts | $49 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Next President of the National Rally in 2026? | Jordan Bardella 96% | -0.4 pts | $40 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election? | 121-124 38% | -1.0 pts | $40 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Lecornu out as French PM? | By December 31, 2026 26.5% | — | $40 | Oct 11, 2026 |
| French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place | Olivier Faure 77% | +6.5 pts | $39 | Oct 10, 2026 |
| Macron out? | By December 31, 2026 4.6% | +0.1 pts | $34 | Jan 3, 2027 |
| National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026? | Yes 85.5% | -1.5 pts | $32 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| 2027 French Presidential Election: Attal vs Philippe | Édouard Philippe 70.5% | +1.0 pts | $21 | Apr 18, 2027 |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally? | By March 31 10.5% | -0.5 pts | $10 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| French election called? | By December 31, 2026 5.9% | -1.1 pts | $2 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| European military action against Iran? | By December 31 7.5% | — | $0 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| France United Left Primary Winner | Canceled 92.1% | -0.5 pts | $0 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | Yes 39.5% | +1.0 pts | $0 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? | Yes 96.5% | +0.5 pts | $0 | Jun 1, 2027 |
| Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly? | By October 31 1.9% | -0.4 pts | $0 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| French Senate Election: Most Seats? | Les Républicains 97.5% | +0.1 pts | $0 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election? | Yes 10.5% | -0.5 pts | $0 | Apr 18, 2027 |
| Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record? | Yes 99.8% | — | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| 2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête? | Knafo 5.5% | — | $0 | Apr 18, 2027 |
| Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round? | Yes 36% | — | $0 | Oct 10, 2026 |
| Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? | Yes 5.9% | +0.7 pts | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the France odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 36 live France markets with $229.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 38.4%), followed by Highest temperature in Paris on September 24? (24°C 38%), Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? (Marine Le Pen 88.5%).
How many France markets are open on Polymarket?
36 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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