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France Odds on Polymarket

Updated November 7, 2026 · 37 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 37 live France markets with $786.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 45.1%), followed by France declares state of emergency? (By December 31 3.4%), Highest temperature in Paris on November 8? (11°C 34%).

France: elections, the government, the prime minister and the presidency. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live France markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen 45.1%+0.6 pts$723.5KApr 19, 2027
France declares state of emergency?By December 31 3.4%-2.1 pts$34.4KJan 1, 2027
Highest temperature in Paris on November 8?11°C 34%+4.5 pts$10.5KNov 8, 2026
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?Jean-Luc Mélenchon 96%-0.2 pts$4.6KJul 1, 2027
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Marine Le Pen 90.5%—$4.6KApr 19, 2027
Highest temperature in Paris on November 9?9°C 31.5%—$2.0KNov 9, 2026
French Presidential Election First Round: 4th PlaceFrançois Ruffin 12.2%—$1.8KApr 18, 2027
French presidential election delayed?Yes 7.5%—$926Apr 19, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round WinnerMarine Le Pen 84.5%—$793Apr 18, 2027
2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?Knafo 16.7%+4.3 pts$498Apr 18, 2027
EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?30M+ 78%-0.5 pts$465Jan 1, 2027
Macron out?By December 31, 2026 2.2%-0.1 pts$442Jan 1, 2027
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?Yes 4.5%—$422Dec 1, 2026
French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceJean-Luc Mélenchon 46%+0.5 pts$265Apr 18, 2027
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?Dominique de Villepin 83%+3.5 pts$241Apr 18, 2027
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?Yes 55.5%+1.0 pts$182Dec 31, 2026
French Presidential Election First Round: Mélenchon hits __% in any poll?20% 79%—$138Apr 17, 2027
Lowest temperature in Paris on November 8?3°C 37.5%+21.5 pts$129Nov 8, 2026
Nuñez out as French Interior Minister?By November 30, 2026 6.5%+2.0 pts$74Jan 1, 2027
Moody's or S&P downgrades France?By November 30 6.5%-25.5 pts$66Dec 1, 2026
French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?Bruno Retailleau 31.5%-4.0 pts$63Mar 13, 2027
European military action against Iran?By December 31 7.2%+1.6 pts$59Dec 31, 2026
France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?Yes 8.0%+0.1 pts$55Jan 1, 2028
France declares state of siege (martial law)?By December 31 2.2%-0.1 pts$30Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round: Le Pen hits __% in any poll?38% 60%—$21Apr 17, 2027
2027 French Presidential Election: Attal vs PhilippeÉdouard Philippe 65%—$20Apr 18, 2027
French Presidential Election: United Right & Center Primary Announced?Yes 43%—$20Apr 18, 2027
Le Pen names non-Bardella PM?By April 17, 2027 24.4%-1.2 pts$0Apr 17, 2027
French election called?By December 31, 2026 5.1%-0.4 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally?By March 31 4.2%-0.1 pts$0Apr 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceJean-Luc Mélenchon 29.5%—$0Apr 18, 2027
EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?30M+ 89%-1.0 pts$0Dec 1, 2026
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen?By December 31 5.5%—$0Dec 31, 2026
IEA asks France to release oil stocks?By December 31 25.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?Yes 5.5%—$0Apr 19, 2027
Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?Yes 10%—$0Apr 18, 2027
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?Yes 6.2%—$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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People in these markets

David Lisnard · Ségolène Royal · Xavier Bertrand · Olivier Faure · Mathilde Panot · François Asselineau · François Bayrou · Yaël Braun-Pivet · Élisabeth Borne · Michel Barnier · Manuel Bompard · Marine Le Pen · Clémentine Autain · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · François Ruffin

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Frequently asked questions

What are the France odds on Polymarket today?

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 37 live France markets with $786.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 45.1%), followed by France declares state of emergency? (By December 31 3.4%), Highest temperature in Paris on November 8? (11°C 34%).

How many France markets are open on Polymarket?

37 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “France odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/france/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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