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Updated October 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 30, 2026
As of October 23, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 99.1%, followed by By November 7 at 83%, By October 31 at 56%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $7.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By November 30 | 99.1% | +1.1 pts | $358 |
| By November 7 | 83% | +19.5 pts | $2.0K |
| By October 31 | 56% | — | $6.1K |
| By October 24 | 1.7% | -12.3 pts | $9.8K |
| By October 21 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.5 pts | $1.9K |
Total volume $20.1K · 24h volume $7.6K · Liquidity $67.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By November 30 ■ By November 7 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris.
The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries.
A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris.
Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: France odds · Politics odds
As of October 23, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By November 30 at 99.1%, followed by By November 7 at 83%, By October 31 at 56%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $7.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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