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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Change at 91.5%, followed by Decrease at 8.2%, Increase at 0.7%. The market has $22.5K in total volume and $103 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 91.5% | — | $12.2K |
| Decrease | 8.2% | -0.1 pts | $7.4K |
| Increase | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | $2.9K |
Total volume $22.5K · 24h volume $103 · Liquidity $8.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Change ■ Decrease ■ Increase · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Change at 91.5%, followed by Decrease at 8.2%, Increase at 0.7%. The market has $22.5K in total volume and $103 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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