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China & Taiwan Odds on Polymarket
Updated November 7, 2026 · 80 live markets · refreshed twice a day
China and Taiwan: US–China relations, trade talks, Xi Jinping and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live China & Taiwan markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 68.5% | -1.5 pts | $190.8K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 1.7% | — | $80.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | Lai Jui-lung 89% | -3.0 pts | $10.5K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? | Yes 85% | -3.0 pts | $10.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Moonshot 34.5% | -1.0 pts | $8.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Su Chiao-hui 61% | — | $6.9K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner | Ann Kao 87% | +2.5 pts | $5.1K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | Kuomintang (KMT) 73.5% | +2.0 pts | $4.1K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner | Wu Hsiu-hua 82.5% | +7.5 pts | $4.1K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner | Chang San-cheng 93% | — | $3.7K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | Cheng Chao-fang 59% | -13.0 pts | $3.5K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Taichung Mayor Election Winner | Johnny Chiang 76.5% | — | $2.5K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Alibaba 38.5% | +3.0 pts | $2.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China? | By November 30 5.5% | -6.0 pts | $2.0K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei | KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei 37% | +10.0 pts | $2.0K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner | Tsai Yi-yu 96.1% | +1.6 pts | $1.6K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes 8.5% | — | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner | Wang Mei-hui 88% | +5.0 pts | $1.4K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of January? | Z.ai 29% | +13.5 pts | $1.1K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? | #3 15.5% | — | $961 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Alibaba 32.5% | -0.5 pts | $900 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| October Inflation China - Annual | 0.7% to 0.8% 54.5% | +0.5 pts | $877 | Nov 9, 2026 |
| Will CCTV broadcast another Real Madrid match in 2026? | Yes 11.5% | — | $794 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of December? | Xiaomi 43% | +16.0 pts | $753 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China Annual Inflation 2026 | 0.6 – 1.0% 61.5% | +1.5 pts | $729 | Jan 11, 2027 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | Yes 10.5% | +2.0 pts | $536 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Mayor Combo: New Taipei and Kaohsiung | DPP sweep 54.5% | -3.0 pts | $509 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | Dong Jun 6.0% | +0.1 pts | $471 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes 2.7% | -0.1 pts | $417 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $415 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | Yes 1.1% | +0.2 pts | $378 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi? | By December 31 79.5% | — | $332 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x India military clash? | By December 31, 2026 5.5% | — | $277 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many Taiwanese mayor/magistrate races will KMT win? | 9 40.5% | +10.5 pts | $210 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026? | Yes 19% | -2.0 pts | $184 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Keelung Mayor Election Winner | Hsieh Kuo-liang 66% | -1.0 pts | $179 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of December? | Xiaomi 26.5% | +2.5 pts | $168 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of January? | Xiaomi 31% | — | $166 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner | Yu Shu-chen 85.5% | +2.0 pts | $160 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Yes 2.6% | — | $130 | Jan 1, 2027 |
40 smaller markets are not shown; all 80 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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People in these markets
Xi Jinping
More Geopolitics & World odds
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Frequently asked questions
What are the China & Taiwan odds on Polymarket today?
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 80 live China & Taiwan markets with $352.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Taipei Mayor Election Winner (Chiang Wan-an 68.5%), followed by Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (Yes 1.7%), Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner (Lai Jui-lung 89%).
How many China & Taiwan markets are open on Polymarket?
80 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “China & Taiwan odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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