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China & Taiwan Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 82 live markets · refreshed twice a day
China and Taiwan: US–China relations, trade talks, Xi Jinping and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live China & Taiwan markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US? | By December 31 99.9%+ | +0.1 pts | $320.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of September? | Alibaba 90.5% | +0.5 pts | $38.0K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 4.0% | +0.1 pts | $36.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 85.5% | +6.0 pts | $23.7K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| How long will Trump and Xi shake hands? | 15s+ 40% | +24.5 pts | $17.1K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | December 31 91% | -1.5 pts | $12.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US? | Yes 0.1% | -3.1 pts | $11.6K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival? | China 5+ times 58% | — | $8.0K | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | Yes 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $6.2K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | Yes 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $5.9K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit? | Yes 1.7% | -0.3 pts | $5.5K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | Tim Cook 98.2% | +1.9 pts | $5.2K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner | Ann Kao 93.5% | +7.5 pts | $4.1K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? | #3 12.5% | — | $2.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | Yes 14.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes 5.7% | -0.2 pts | $2.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi? | By December 31 66.5% | +10.5 pts | $1.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China Annual Inflation 2026 | 0.1 – 0.5% 27.7% | +5.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 11, 2027 |
| Will Trump insult Xi by end of US Visit? | Yes 1.3% | +0.1 pts | $1.4K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | Yes 8.5% | — | $1.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? | Yes 5.5% | +0.9 pts | $1.1K | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Alibaba 63.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Yes 3.8% | +0.3 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China? | By December 31 13% | -3.5 pts | $1.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | Lai Jui-lung 68.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.0K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| When will Xi leave the USA? | September 25 98.4% | +0.8 pts | $963 | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung? | By December 31 91.1% | +0.3 pts | $901 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes 27% | -1.5 pts | $879 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes 11.5% | — | $518 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026? | 5–15% 27% | — | $458 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | Yes 9.5% | — | $434 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | Yes 4.2% | +0.8 pts | $382 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Alibaba 53.5% | -3.0 pts | $366 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | CATL 29.5% | — | $336 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner | Chou Chun-mi 88% | — | $316 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner | Wang Mei-hui 78.5% | — | $300 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? | 4.3-4.6% 35% | +0.5 pts | $230 | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Z.ai 42.5% | +6.5 pts | $228 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| People's Bank of China rate change by September 30? | No Change 99.1% | +0.2 pts | $222 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | Yes 0.9% | — | $220 | Jan 1, 2027 |
42 smaller markets are not shown; all 82 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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More Geopolitics & World odds
Iran (117) · Strait of Hormuz (31) · Israel (103) · Middle East (108) · Russia–Ukraine War (129) · Venezuela (24)
Frequently asked questions
What are the China & Taiwan odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 82 live China & Taiwan markets with $521.2K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will Xi Jinping visit US? (By December 31 99.9%+), followed by Best Chinese AI Company end of September? (Alibaba 90.5%), Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (Yes 4.0%).
How many China & Taiwan markets are open on Polymarket?
82 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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