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China & Taiwan Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 10, 2026 · 73 live markets · refreshed twice a day
China and Taiwan: US–China relations, trade talks, Xi Jinping and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live China & Taiwan markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 66.5% | -1.0 pts | $68.8K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 2.2% | -0.1 pts | $46.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes 4.7% | +0.5 pts | $5.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | Kuomintang (KMT) 86.5% | -1.5 pts | $3.6K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Taichung Mayor Election Winner | Johnny Chiang 65% | -20.5 pts | $3.3K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | Yes 2.4% | +0.5 pts | $2.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Yes 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $2.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Lee Shu-chuan 54.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.0K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Xiaomi 40% | -0.8 pts | $1.9K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? | #3 24.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Yes 3.8% | +0.3 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes 27.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes 10.5% | — | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | Dong Jun 8.6% | +0.1 pts | $927 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026 | 4.0–5.0% 94% | — | $571 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? | 4.3-4.6% 70.5% | +2.5 pts | $538 | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026? | Yes 11.5% | -2.0 pts | $522 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| People's Bank of China rate change by December 31? | No Change 86% | +0.5 pts | $457 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | DeepSeek 20.5% | -1.0 pts | $410 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | CATL 28.5% | +4.0 pts | $365 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out? | By December 31 24.5% | +6.0 pts | $335 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi? | By December 31 72% | -3.0 pts | $299 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Alibaba 38.5% | -1.0 pts | $290 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | Lai Jui-lung 75% | +6.5 pts | $290 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| China coup attempt? | By December 31, 2026 3.8% | -0.5 pts | $229 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Alibaba 34.5% | -0.5 pts | $218 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| China Annual Inflation 2026 | 0.6 – 1.0% 43.5% | -3.0 pts | $210 | Jan 11, 2027 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of December? | Alibaba 28.5% | -1.5 pts | $169 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? | Yes 82.5% | +1.5 pts | $149 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner | Wu Hsiu-hua 69.5% | -10.0 pts | $120 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Moonshot 26.5% | -0.5 pts | $111 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung? | By December 31 94.6% | +0.1 pts | $110 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner | Wang Chung-ming 73% | — | $101 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Keelung Mayor Election Winner | Hsieh Kuo-liang 74% | — | $93 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | Yes 6.9% | +0.1 pts | $92 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner | Wang Mei-hui 75.5% | +0.5 pts | $83 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Moonshot 44.5% | +1.5 pts | $80 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | Yes 2.3% | -0.2 pts | $60 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | Yes 7.5% | — | $52 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of December? | Alibaba 39% | +0.5 pts | $40 | Jan 1, 2027 |
33 smaller markets are not shown; all 73 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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People in these markets
Xi Jinping
More Geopolitics & World odds
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Frequently asked questions
What are the China & Taiwan odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 10, 2026 at 16:47 UTC, Polymarket lists 73 live China & Taiwan markets with $149.0K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Taipei Mayor Election Winner (Chiang Wan-an 66.5%), followed by Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (Yes 2.2%), China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? (Yes 4.7%).
How many China & Taiwan markets are open on Polymarket?
73 live markets as of October 10, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “China & Taiwan odds on Polymarket”, October 10, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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