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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 3.3%, followed by By November 30 at 2.4%. The market has $20.5K in total volume and $840 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 3.3% | -1.4 pts | $8.4K |
| By November 30 | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $12.1K |
Total volume $20.5K · 24h volume $840 · Liquidity $20.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic.
A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 3.3%, followed by By November 30 at 2.4%. The market has $20.5K in total volume and $840 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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