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Updated October 21, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 3, 2026
As of October 21, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Dems sweep at 53%, followed by Reps sweep at 22.1%, Reps TX & ME, Dems MI at 8.5%. The market has $21.3K in total volume and $8.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dems sweep | 53% | +6.5 pts | $9.9K |
| Reps sweep | 22.1% | +3.2 pts | $5.0K |
| Reps TX & ME, Dems MI | 8.5% | -3.9 pts | $1.4K |
| Dems TX & MI, Reps ME | 8.0% | -5.8 pts | $1.6K |
| Reps TX, Dems MI & ME | 4.6% | — | $846 |
| Dems TX & ME, Reps MI | 2.8% | -12.7 pts | $940 |
| Dems TX, Reps MI & ME | 0.5% | -7.2 pts | $1.1K |
| Reps TX & MI, Dems ME | 0.3% | -4.0 pts | $684 |
Total volume $21.3K · 24h volume $8.4K · Liquidity $126.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Dems sweep ■ Reps sweep ■ Reps TX & ME, Dems MI · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of October 21, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Dems sweep at 53%, followed by Reps sweep at 22.1%, Reps TX & ME, Dems MI at 8.5%. The market has $21.3K in total volume and $8.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 3, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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