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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 25, 2026
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 40-45% at 39.5%, followed by 45-50% at 28%, 35-40% at 16.5%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $1.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40-45% | 39.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.1K |
| 45-50% | 28% | -5.0 pts | $3.5K |
| 35-40% | 16.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.1K |
| 50-55% | 16% | +2.0 pts | $3.1K |
| <35% | 5.3% | +0.8 pts | $2.6K |
| 55%+ | 2.9% | -0.3 pts | $3.6K |
Total volume $20.1K · 24h volume $1.0K · Liquidity $88.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 40-45% ■ 45-50% ■ 35-40% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 40-45% at 39.5%, followed by 45-50% at 28%, 35-40% at 16.5%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $1.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 25, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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