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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 25, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! at 61%, followed by Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović at 15.6%, European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš at 12.5%. The market has $26.9K in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! | 61% | +2.0 pts | $5.4K |
| Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović | 15.6% | +2.5 pts | $4.4K |
| European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš | 12.5% | -3.0 pts | $6.9K |
| Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor | 5.1% | -0.5 pts | $3.0K |
| Student List – Students Win | 1.7% | +1.5 pts | $1.7K |
| Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) | 1.1% | -0.2 pts | $2.3K |
| Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia | <0.1% | — | $926 |
| Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification | <0.1% | — | $865 |
| Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić | <0.1% | — | $731 |
| SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak | <0.1% | — | $722 |
Total volume $26.9K · 24h volume $4.0K · Liquidity $117.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! ■ Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović ■ European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! at 61%, followed by Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović at 15.6%, European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš at 12.5%. The market has $26.9K in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 25, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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