Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 46.8%. The market has $31.7K in total volume and $552 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 46.8% | +21.1 pts | $4.4K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.3 pts | $25.9K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $1.1K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $412 |
Total volume $31.7K · 24h volume $552 · Liquidity $20.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Mexico odds · Politics odds
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 46.8%. The market has $31.7K in total volume and $552 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested/">Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested? — Polymarket odds”, September 30, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested.svg" alt="Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog