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Updated October 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of October 9, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No election before 2027 at 97.9%, followed by Justice and Welfare (UCID) at 1.5%, Waddani at 1.1%. The market has $113.9K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No election before 2027 | 97.9% | -0.2 pts | $98.4K |
| Justice and Welfare (UCID) | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $5.3K |
| Waddani | 1.1% | +0.9 pts | $6.4K |
| Kulmiye | 0.1% | — | $3.9K |
Total volume $113.9K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $67.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No election before 2027 ■ Justice and Welfare (UCID) ■ Waddani · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 9, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No election before 2027 at 97.9%, followed by Justice and Welfare (UCID) at 1.5%, Waddani at 1.1%. The market has $113.9K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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