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Updated October 12, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: December 10, 2026
As of October 12, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Change at 70.8%, followed by 25 bps increase at 25.1%, 50+ bps increase at 0.2%. The market has $32.0K in total volume and $24.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 70.8% | -14.7 pts | $11.2K |
| 25 bps increase | 25.1% | +12.2 pts | $14.0K |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $2.1K |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $2.0K |
Total volume $32.0K · 24h volume $24.3K · Liquidity $15.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Change ■ 25 bps increase ■ 50+ bps increase · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for December 10, 2026, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of October 12, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Change at 70.8%, followed by 25 bps increase at 25.1%, 50+ bps increase at 0.2%. The market has $32.0K in total volume and $24.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 10, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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