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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Google at 29%, followed by OpenAI at 22.5%, SpaceXAI at 8.5%. The market has $22.1K in total volume and $5.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | -4.5 pts | $4.7K | |
| OpenAI | 22.5% | +2.0 pts | $6.6K |
| SpaceXAI | 8.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.2K |
| Meta | 7.2% | -5.1 pts | $1.0K |
| Moonshot | 5.0% | -1.0 pts | $2.6K |
| Anthropic | 5.0% | +0.1 pts | $813 |
| Z.ai | 5.0% | — | $327 |
| Tencent | 4.8% | -1.1 pts | $766 |
| Alibaba | 3.8% | -0.1 pts | $390 |
| Nvidia | 3.8% | -0.1 pts | $249 |
| Baidu | 3.6% | — | $400 |
| ByteDance | 3.6% | — | $312 |
| MiniMax | 3.5% | — | $257 |
| DeepSeek | 1.3% | — | $296 |
| Xiaomi | 0.6% | — | $248 |
4 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $22.1K · 24h volume $5.0K · Liquidity $9.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Google ■ OpenAI ■ SpaceXAI · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Google at 29%, followed by OpenAI at 22.5%, SpaceXAI at 8.5%. The market has $22.1K in total volume and $5.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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