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Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.1% (No 98%), with $54.9K traded in total and $702 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.1% | — | $54.9K |
| No | 98% | — | — |
Total volume $54.9K · 24h volume $702 · Liquidity $51.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.1% (No 98%), with $54.9K traded in total and $702 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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