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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.5% (No 97.5%), with $38.4K traded in total and $6.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.5% | — | $38.4K |
| No | 97.5% | — | — |
Total volume $38.4K · 24h volume $6.4K · Liquidity $27.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a $250 bill featuring an image or portrait of Donald Trump is officially issued by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count.
A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count.
A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.5% (No 97.5%), with $38.4K traded in total and $6.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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