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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: October 23, 2026
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 43.0 to 45.9 at 37%, followed by 46.0 to 48.9 at 36%, 52.0 to 54.9 at 15.2%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $5.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43.0 to 45.9 | 37% | -3.5 pts | $6.0K |
| 46.0 to 48.9 | 36% | -10.5 pts | $9.3K |
| 52.0 to 54.9 | 15.2% | -3.1 pts | $727 |
| 49.0 to 51.9 | 4.7% | -0.9 pts | $3.5K |
| 40.0 to 42.9 | 3.6% | -0.1 pts | $622 |
| 55.0+ | 2.6% | — | $429 |
| <40.0 | 1.6% | — | $251 |
Total volume $20.9K · 24h volume $5.7K · Liquidity $8.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 43.0 to 45.9 ■ 46.0 to 48.9 ■ 52.0 to 54.9 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for October 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for October 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for October 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on October 23, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 43.0 to 45.9 at 37%, followed by 46.0 to 48.9 at 36%, 52.0 to 54.9 at 15.2%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $5.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 23, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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