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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 66.5%, followed by Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 34%, Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 1.0%. The market has $96.9K in total volume and $619 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 66.5% | -1.0 pts | $31.5K |
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 34% | +1.5 pts | $45.6K |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 1.0% | +0.8 pts | $13.3K |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 0.4% | -0.4 pts | $6.5K |
Total volume $96.9K · 24h volume $619 · Liquidity $6.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) ■ Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) ■ Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 66.5%, followed by Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 34%, Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 1.0%. The market has $96.9K in total volume and $619 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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