Home › Polymarket odds › Economy & Fed
Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 2 (50 bps) at 56.5%, followed by 3 (75 bps) at 29.9%, 1 (25 bps) at 11.5%. The market has $619.0K in total volume and $15.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 56.5% | -5.5 pts | $123.9K |
| 3 (75 bps) | 29.9% | +7.2 pts | $95.5K |
| 1 (25 bps) | 11.5% | -2.0 pts | $176.1K |
| 4 (100 bps) | 0.9% | -0.2 pts | $44.1K |
| 5+ (125+ bps) | 0.6% | -0.2 pts | $39.0K |
| 0 (0 bps) (settled) | 0.0% | -2.5 pts | $140.4K |
Total volume $619.0K · 24h volume $15.9K · Liquidity $249.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 2 (50 bps) ■ 3 (75 bps) ■ 1 (25 bps) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · Inflation & CPI odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 2 (50 bps) at 56.5%, followed by 3 (75 bps) at 29.9%, 1 (25 bps) at 11.5%. The market has $619.0K in total volume and $15.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026/">How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — Polymarket odds”, September 23, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog