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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 29, 2026
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is One Nation at 70%, followed by Greens at 13.2%, Labor at 4.7%. The market has $23.6K in total volume and $21 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 70% | -1.0 pts | $8.8K |
| Greens | 13.2% | -0.2 pts | $569 |
| Labor | 4.7% | -0.4 pts | $6.8K |
| Liberal–National | 0.6% | — | $2.1K |
| Libertarian | 0.3% | — | $1.6K |
| Animal Justice | 0.3% | — | $1.2K |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 0.2% | — | $914 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 0.1% | — | $1.5K |
Total volume $23.6K · 24h volume $21 · Liquidity $106.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ One Nation ■ Greens ■ Labor · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is One Nation at 70%, followed by Greens at 13.2%, Labor at 4.7%. The market has $23.6K in total volume and $21 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 29, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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