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Updated October 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ 37% at 84.8%, followed by ↓ 36% at 61.5%, ↑ 39% at 60.5%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 37% | 84.8% | -5.1 pts | $755 |
| ↓ 36% | 61.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.6K |
| ↑ 39% | 60.5% | -7.5 pts | $2.7K |
| ↓ 34% | 52.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.3K |
| ↑ 40% | 44.5% | -15.5 pts | $2.6K |
| ↓ 35% | 40.5% | -27.5 pts | $1.7K |
| ↑ 41% | 26% | -8.0 pts | $1.8K |
| ↑ 42% | 17% | -3.5 pts | $1.0K |
| ↑ 44% | 10.5% | — | $1.6K |
| ↓ 30% | 9.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.7K |
| ↓ 32% | 8.0% | -2.5 pts | $2.9K |
| ↑ 46% | 6.5% | — | $577 |
Total volume $20.1K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $4.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ↓ 37% ■ ↓ 36% ■ ↑ 39% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling reaches the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on any date between market creation and June 30, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For markets listed with an upward arrow (↑), the approval rating must be equal to or higher than the listed value. For markets listed with a downward arrow (↓), the approval rating must be equal to or lower than the listed value.
This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on each date in the window. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after these times will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources.
If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on June 30, 2027, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after that date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on June 30, 2027 will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ 37% at 84.8%, followed by ↓ 36% at 61.5%, ↑ 39% at 60.5%. The market has $20.1K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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