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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 88.5%, followed by SpaceXAI at 5.1%, Tencent at 4.5%. The market has $21.6K in total volume and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 88.5% | -1.0 pts | $14.6K |
| SpaceXAI | 5.1% | +0.8 pts | $695 |
| Tencent | 4.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.0K |
| 3.5% | — | $770 | |
| Black Forest Labs | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $628 |
| Pruna | 0.1% | — | $520 |
| Microsoft AI | 0.1% | — | $456 |
| Reve | 0.1% | — | $442 |
| Luma AI | 0.1% | — | $435 |
| ByteDance | 0.1% | — | $433 |
| Meta | 0.1% | — | $417 |
| Alibaba | 0.1% | — | $395 |
| StepFun | 0.1% | — | $392 |
| KlingAI | 0.1% | — | $373 |
Total volume $21.6K · 24h volume $1.9K · Liquidity $14.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ OpenAI ■ SpaceXAI ■ Tencent · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image Edit Leaderboard when the table under "Image Edit Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image Edit Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image Edit Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 88.5%, followed by SpaceXAI at 5.1%, Tencent at 4.5%. The market has $21.6K in total volume and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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