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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Japan at 28%, followed by Colombia at 20.5%, Thailand at 16.2%. The market has $31.7K in total volume and $411 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 28% | -19.0 pts | $8.0K |
| Colombia | 20.5% | +5.5 pts | $234 |
| Thailand | 16.2% | +3.6 pts | $2.4K |
| China | 14% | +0.5 pts | $164 |
| Philippines | 13% | — | $3.4K |
| Russia | 13% | -0.5 pts | $194 |
| United Kingdom | 7.0% | — | $5.7K |
| South Korea | 6.0% | — | $3.8K |
| Brazil | 4.5% | — | $3.5K |
| North Korea | 3.3% | +0.5 pts | $2.5K |
| Iran | 3.1% | +0.1 pts | $217 |
| Germany | 0.7% | -0.5 pts | $1.7K |
Total volume $31.7K · 24h volume $411 · Liquidity $7.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Japan ■ Colombia ■ Thailand · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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If Clavicular, otherwise known as Braden Peters, visits a listed country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Clavicular physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Clavicular enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For the purposes of this market, "China" includes all territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Pop Culture odds
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Japan at 28%, followed by Colombia at 20.5%, Thailand at 16.2%. The market has $31.7K in total volume and $411 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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