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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 28, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is UDMR at 88%, followed by PSD at 62.4%, USR at 60%. The market has $32.7K in total volume and $313 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| UDMR | 88% | +21.5 pts | $2.4K |
| PSD | 62.4% | +2.4 pts | $4.9K |
| USR | 60% | -2.1 pts | $4.8K |
| PNL | 44% | -2.5 pts | $6.1K |
| AUR | 24.5% | -0.1 pts | $10.2K |
| SOS | 3.0% | +0.4 pts | $4.3K |
Total volume $32.7K · 24h volume $313 · Liquidity $16.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ UDMR ■ PSD ■ USR · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the composition of the next governing coalition is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Romania.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 28, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is UDMR at 88%, followed by PSD at 62.4%, USR at 60%. The market has $32.7K in total volume and $313 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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