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Updated October 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 6, 2026
As of October 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats at 78.5%, followed by Republicans at 14%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $4.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 78.5% | -3.0 pts | $7.3K |
| Republicans | 14% | — | $13.9K |
Total volume $21.1K · 24h volume $4.2K · Liquidity $53.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Democrats ■ Republicans · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white women in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Politics odds
As of October 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats at 78.5%, followed by Republicans at 14%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $4.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 6, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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