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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is John Cornyn - TX-Sen at 1.7%. The market has $253.4K in total volume and $2.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton - TX-Sen (settled) | 100% | +70.2 pts | $64.9K |
| Andy Barr - KY-Sen (settled) | 100% | +16.0 pts | $24.1K |
| Lindsey Graham - SC-Sen (settled) | 100% | +12.0 pts | $7.5K |
| Steve Hilton - CA-Gov (settled) | 100% | -44.2 pts | $2.2K |
| Susan Collins - ME-Sen (settled) | 100% | +13.6 pts | $1.6K |
| John Cornyn - TX-Sen | 1.7% | -0.1 pts | $150.7K |
| Winsome Earle-Sears - VA-Gov (settled) | 0.0% | -43.0 pts | $2.4K |
Total volume $253.4K · 24h volume $2.0K · Liquidity $17.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ John Cornyn - TX-Sen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the candidate Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.
If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is John Cornyn - TX-Sen at 1.7%. The market has $253.4K in total volume and $2.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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