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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.5% (No 95.5%), with $26.8K traded in total and $90 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.5% | -1.5 pts | $26.8K |
| No | 95.5% | +1.5 pts | — |
Total volume $26.8K · 24h volume $90 · Liquidity $15.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any court in the United States issues a ruling that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of votes occurred in at least one US state during the 2020 United States Presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling is defined as any written order, judgement, opinion, or decision, including per curiam opinions, summary orders and sua sponte rulings issued by a relevant court. Unwritten oral rulings, tentative rulings, settlements, orders to show cause, or other procedures which do not constitute a finalized ruling will not count.
A qualifying ruling of fraud must find that widespread, intentional voter fraud or vote-manipulation occured during the 2020 United States Presidential election. Procedural irregularities, administrative errors, or isolated rulings on individual cases of voter fraud will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.5% (No 95.5%), with $26.8K traded in total and $90 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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