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Updated October 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of October 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Senate at 50%, followed by President at 30.5%, Neither at 11.7%. The market has $22.0K in total volume and $7.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 50% | -4.5 pts | $8.2K |
| President | 30.5% | -15.0 pts | $7.0K |
| Neither | 11.7% | +9.8 pts | $6.8K |
Total volume $22.0K · 24h volume $7.3K · Liquidity $66.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Senate ■ President ■ Neither · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement.
If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Senate Races odds · Politics odds
As of October 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Senate at 50%, followed by President at 30.5%, Neither at 11.7%. The market has $22.0K in total volume and $7.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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