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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 1, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 11.5%, followed by November 30, 2026 at 8.5%, October 31, 2026 at 4.5%. The market has $66.4K in total volume and $816 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 11.5% | — | $12.6K |
| November 30, 2026 | 8.5% | — | $4.2K |
| October 31, 2026 | 4.5% | — | $2.8K |
| July 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $14.3K |
| August 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.5 pts | $12.1K |
| June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $10.5K |
| September 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.2 pts | $9.8K |
Total volume $66.4K · 24h volume $816 · Liquidity $4.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31, 2026 ■ November 30, 2026 ■ October 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.
Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: H@perl1quid, for "Hyperliquid") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: Hyperliquidd or Hyperliqid, for "Hyperliquid"), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the listed term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
Posts published from https://x.com/elonmusk during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk
Please note, only the https://x.com/elonmusk verified X account counts for this market. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Elon Musk odds
As of October 1, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 11.5%, followed by November 30, 2026 at 8.5%, October 31, 2026 at 4.5%. The market has $66.4K in total volume and $816 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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