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Elon Musk Odds on Polymarket
Updated November 7, 2026 · 69 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Elon Musk: weekly tweet counts, Tesla, SpaceX and his other ventures. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Elon Musk markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Elon Musk # tweets November 5 - November 7, 2026? | 90-114 85.5% | +52.5 pts | $501.6K | Nov 7, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 260-279 20.4% | +5.8 pts | $239.7K | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 280-299 14.5% | +3.0 pts | $127.0K | Nov 13, 2026 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | SpaceX 87.5% | -1.0 pts | $96.9K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| Elon Musk # tweets in November 2026? | 1000+ 86% | +11.0 pts | $41.2K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 10 - November 17, 2026? | 280-299 11% | — | $23.1K | Nov 17, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 100-119 21.9% | +8.7 pts | $11.1K | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 7 - November 9, 2026? | 65-89 40.5% | +8.0 pts | $9.1K | Nov 9, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 200+ 24.5% | -2.5 pts | $3.1K | Nov 13, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 10 - November 17, 2026? | 140-159 38% | — | $2.6K | Nov 17, 2026 |
| CZ # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 20-39 40% | +9.5 pts | $2.6K | Nov 13, 2026 |
| Richest person on December 31, 2026? | Elon Musk 95.9% | -0.1 pts | $2.2K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| White House # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 180-199 36.5% | -1.8 pts | $2.0K | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 60-79 34% | -2.5 pts | $1.6K | Nov 13, 2026 |
| White House # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 200+ 46.5% | -18.0 pts | $1.5K | Nov 13, 2026 |
| Ted Cruz # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 100-119 24.8% | +3.0 pts | $1.4K | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | Yes 21.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| AI data center in space? | By December 31, 2027 16.5% | — | $1.3K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Zelenskyy # posts November 10 - November 17, 2026? | 80-99 31% | — | $1.2K | Nov 17, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 20-39 87.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.1K | Nov 13, 2026 |
| CZ # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 40-59 42% | -1.0 pts | $949 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___? | December 31, 2027 52.5% | +1.0 pts | $876 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Zelenskyy # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 80-99 60% | +12.0 pts | $858 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | Yes 2.8% | +0.4 pts | $843 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? | Yes 93.5% | +1.5 pts | $832 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Ted Cruz # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 140-159 20% | +5.5 pts | $819 | Nov 13, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 20-39 96.8% | +3.3 pts | $714 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? | November 30, 2026 91.8% | -1.7 pts | $606 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on November 30? | $800-$900B 28% | -2.0 pts | $475 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026? | <5 67.1% | +1.7 pts | $443 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Elon Musk meets with Putin? | By March 31 16% | +0.5 pts | $415 | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster? | By April 30, 2027 22% | -9.0 pts | $409 | May 1, 2027 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced? | By December 31, 2027 68.5% | — | $400 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…? | December 31, 2027 60% | -1.0 pts | $304 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Khamenei # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026? | <5 74.5% | +2.5 pts | $194 | Nov 13, 2026 |
| How many SpaceX launches in 2026? | 140-159 78.3% | +3.4 pts | $156 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Ted Cruz # posts November 10 - November 17, 2026? | 20-39 38.5% | — | $138 | Nov 17, 2026 |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch? | By December 31, 2027 24% | -9.5 pts | $117 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026? | 400k to 425k 25.6% | +2.1 pts | $87 | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27? | Yes 56% | -0.5 pts | $55 | Jan 28, 2027 |
29 smaller markets are not shown; all 69 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: Tweet count markets · Price range markets.
People in these markets
Elon Musk · Donald Trump · Ted Cruz
More Tech & AI odds
AI (185) · OpenAI (80) · Anthropic (76) · Big Tech (174) · Science & Space (105)
Frequently asked questions
What are the Elon Musk odds on Polymarket today?
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 69 live Elon Musk markets with $1.08M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Elon Musk # tweets November 5 - November 7, 2026? (90-114 85.5%), followed by Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026? (260-279 20.4%), Elon Musk # tweets November 6 - November 13, 2026? (280-299 14.5%).
How many Elon Musk markets are open on Polymarket?
69 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “Elon Musk odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/elon-musk/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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