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Elon Musk Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 69 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Elon Musk: weekly tweet counts, Tesla, SpaceX and his other ventures. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Elon Musk markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Elon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 200-219 39.5% | +11.0 pts | $359.9K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 200-219 23.5% | +1.0 pts | $165.1K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026? | 200-219 19.5% | -1.0 pts | $104.2K | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026? | 840-879 30.5% | +11.0 pts | $25.5K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026? | 1000+ 35.5% | -5.5 pts | $17.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 24 - September 26, 2026? | 40-64 56.5% | +2.5 pts | $14.3K | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 80-99 43.6% | +23.4 pts | $6.6K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30? | $900B-$1.00T 61.5% | -10.0 pts | $6.1K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 25 - October 2, 2026? | 200+ 18.5% | -8.0 pts | $6.1K | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026? | <5 99.1% | +2.7 pts | $5.3K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced? | By December 31, 2027 65.5% | — | $4.8K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| White House # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 200+ 96.6% | +28.1 pts | $4.1K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026? | <5 98.7% | +22.7 pts | $3.6K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 | October 31 97.5% | -0.1 pts | $3.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| NYC Mayor # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 20-39 83.5% | -7.5 pts | $2.7K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 140-159 22% | +0.5 pts | $2.3K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| CZ # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 20-39 56.5% | +35.0 pts | $2.3K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 20-39 51.5% | -32.5 pts | $2.2K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| CZ # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 20-39 49.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.9K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| 2nd richest person on December 31? | Sergey Brin 57.8% | +26.2 pts | $1.5K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Zelenskyy # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 80-99 74.5% | +12.5 pts | $1.3K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic 53.9% | -1.9 pts | $1.3K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| Ted Cruz # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 120-139 58% | +4.0 pts | $1.3K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 80-99 48% | +8.5 pts | $1.1K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| AI data center in space? | By December 31, 2027 22% | +2.5 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| White House # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 200+ 99.9% | +10.8 pts | $1.0K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Will Tesla release Optimus? | By December 31 10.5% | +4.5 pts | $943 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NYC Mayor # posts September 25 - October 2, 2026? | 20-39 87% | +11.0 pts | $775 | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Ted Cruz # posts September 25 - October 2, 2026? | 120-139 42% | +15.0 pts | $753 | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Grok 5 released? | By December 31 55% | +8.0 pts | $711 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| White House # posts September 25 - October 2, 2026? | 200+ 63.5% | +15.5 pts | $505 | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | Yes 16% | -1.0 pts | $324 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Ted Cruz # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 120-139 42.5% | +17.5 pts | $322 | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | Yes 7.5% | -3.0 pts | $251 | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Khamenei # posts September 25 - October 2, 2026? | <5 96.1% | +0.6 pts | $248 | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Tesla Roadster delivered? | By December 31, 2027 34.5% | — | $141 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space? | By December 31 9.5% | -1.0 pts | $117 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…? | December 31, 2027 51.5% | +0.5 pts | $100 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Zelenskyy # posts September 25 - October 2, 2026? | 80-99 45.5% | +20.5 pts | $80 | Oct 2, 2026 |
| How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? | <5 51.5% | -1.5 pts | $58 | Jan 1, 2027 |
29 smaller markets are not shown; all 69 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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More Tech & AI odds
AI (165) · OpenAI (68) · Anthropic (55) · Big Tech (171) · Science & Space (113)
Frequently asked questions
What are the Elon Musk odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket lists 69 live Elon Musk markets with $752.1K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Elon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026? (200-219 39.5%), followed by Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026? (200-219 23.5%), Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026? (200-219 19.5%).
How many Elon Musk markets are open on Polymarket?
69 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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