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Elon Musk Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 15, 2026 · 67 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Elon Musk: weekly tweet counts, Tesla, SpaceX and his other ventures. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Elon Musk markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026? | 280-299 29.5% | +13.5 pts | $534.8K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026? | 260-279 16.5% | +5.0 pts | $128.0K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026? | 220-239 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $35.0K | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced? | By December 31, 2027 62.5% | +3.0 pts | $25.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026? | 40-64 35.5% | -8.0 pts | $19.1K | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | Yes 47.5% | — | $17.2K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026? | 1000+ 94.5% | +1.0 pts | $12.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic 50.1% | -1.4 pts | $7.0K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026? | 160-179 38.5% | +14.1 pts | $6.8K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? | 200+ 26.1% | +3.0 pts | $6.5K | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026? | 200+ 33.5% | +7.0 pts | $6.5K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | Yes 22.5% | — | $6.5K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026? | 20-39 94.5% | +18.5 pts | $6.1K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026? | <5 97.2% | +7.4 pts | $5.4K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| CZ # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026? | 20-39 98% | +9.5 pts | $5.0K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026? | 120-139 37% | -3.5 pts | $4.6K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch? | By December 31, 2027 65.5% | — | $2.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| White House # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026? | 200+ 73.5% | -6.5 pts | $2.0K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| CZ # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026? | 20-39 69.5% | +14.0 pts | $1.7K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Ted Cruz # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? | 120-139 32.5% | +11.0 pts | $1.7K | Oct 23, 2026 |
| White House # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026? | 200+ 55.1% | -20.7 pts | $1.3K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026? | 80-99 65.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.0K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026? | 20-39 97.2% | +1.5 pts | $950 | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31? | $900B-$1.00T 45% | +7.2 pts | $892 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Ted Cruz # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026? | 120-139 46.5% | +8.0 pts | $778 | Oct 16, 2026 |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? | November 30, 2026 77.5% | -4.0 pts | $760 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | Yes 19.5% | -2.5 pts | $712 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Zelenskyy # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? | 80-99 39.5% | +3.5 pts | $710 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026? | <5 93.5% | +3.0 pts | $422 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Tesla Roadster delivered? | By December 31, 2027 32.5% | — | $348 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Zelenskyy # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026? | 80-99 40.5% | -10.5 pts | $290 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| CZ # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? | 20-39 58.5% | -4.5 pts | $230 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? | Yes 2.7% | -0.1 pts | $180 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| AI data center in space? | By December 31, 2027 25.5% | — | $110 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| White House # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? | 200+ 59.5% | -1.0 pts | $104 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? | 20-39 84.5% | +1.0 pts | $100 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| What will Elon post this week? (October 12 - October 18) | India 74.5% | +25.0 pts | $94 | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026? | <5 85.5% | +4.5 pts | $77 | Oct 23, 2026 |
| How many SpaceX launches in 2026? | 140-159 77.8% | +4.7 pts | $61 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___? | December 31, 2027 42.5% | — | $33 | Jan 1, 2028 |
27 smaller markets are not shown; all 67 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: Tweet count markets · Price range markets.
People in these markets
Elon Musk · Donald Trump · Ted Cruz
More Tech & AI odds
AI (181) · OpenAI (76) · Anthropic (66) · Big Tech (190) · Science & Space (95)
Frequently asked questions
What are the Elon Musk odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 15, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 67 live Elon Musk markets with $844.2K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026? (280-299 29.5%), followed by Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026? (260-279 16.5%), Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026? (220-239 14.5%).
How many Elon Musk markets are open on Polymarket?
67 live markets as of October 15, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Elon Musk odds on Polymarket”, October 15, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/elon-musk/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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