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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 16.5%. The market has $94.1K in total volume and $466 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 16.5% | -2.0 pts | $62.3K |
| By December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $31.7K |
Total volume $94.1K · 24h volume $466 · Liquidity $14.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 16.5%. The market has $94.1K in total volume and $466 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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