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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31 at 19%, followed by By December 31 at 8.8%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $3.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By March 31 | 19% | +1.0 pts | $3.5K |
| By December 31 | 8.8% | +4.0 pts | $15.5K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $2.0K |
Total volume $20.9K · 24h volume $3.9K · Liquidity $31.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By March 31 ■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31 at 19%, followed by By December 31 at 8.8%. The market has $20.9K in total volume and $3.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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