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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 4, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 10.5% (No 89.5%), with $1.72M traded in total and $73 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10.5% | — | $1.72M |
| No | 89.5% | — | — |
Total volume $1.72M · 24h volume $73 · Liquidity $47.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Senate Races odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 10.5% (No 89.5%), with $1.72M traded in total and $73 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 4, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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