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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 15.5%. The market has $120.2K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 15.5% | +0.5 pts | $36.5K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $83.8K |
Total volume $120.2K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $11.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media.
Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count.
The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 15.5%. The market has $120.2K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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