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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 16.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $212.1K in total volume and $515 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 16.5% | — | $51.0K |
| By September 30 | 0.2% | -1.1 pts | $161.0K |
Total volume $212.1K · 24h volume $515 · Liquidity $8.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka1.png
Location in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka2.png
Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZH4QxaEkdvhuK7xN9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 16.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $212.1K in total volume and $515 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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