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Updated October 18, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 18, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 17%. The market has $22.9K in total volume and $5.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 17% | -3.0 pts | $17.3K |
| By October 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -3.9 pts | $5.6K |
Total volume $22.9K · 24h volume $5.0K · Liquidity $14.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if both James Talarico and Ken Paxton participate in a televised or live-streamed debate or candidate forum between market creation and October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, both listed individuals must be present, either on stage or in a virtual forum, and both must respond to at least one question while the other is present.
Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify.
A candidate forum in which both candidates participate at different times will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Politics odds
As of October 18, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 17%. The market has $22.9K in total volume and $5.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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