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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 20, 2029
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 70.5% (No 29.5%), with $104.9K traded in total and $820 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70.5% | +1.0 pts | $104.9K |
| No | 29.5% | -1.0 pts | — |
Total volume $104.9K · 24h volume $820 · Liquidity $41.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 70.5% (No 29.5%), with $104.9K traded in total and $820 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 20, 2029. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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