September 07, 2026
Three markets caught my eye in the September 7 snapshot, and what makes them interesting isn't that they agree — it's that they sit at three completely different points on the certainty curve. One is a genuine coin-flip-plus that moved 32 points in a week. One is a long-dated tail that refuses to move at all despite carrying more open interest than anything else on the board. And one is a cluster of books where the price has effectively stopped existing.
That contrast is the whole point of this polymarket analysis. Price alone tells you very little. Price plus turnover plus depth plus the calendar tells you what kind of market you're actually looking at.
The Carlos Alcaraz US Open market sits at 58.5% Yes, up 10 points in 24 hours and 32 points on the week. That
Join Polymarket View on Telegram →