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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.4% (No 96.7%), with $238.5K traded in total and $850 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.4% | +1.0 pts | $238.5K |
| No | 96.7% | -1.0 pts | — |
Total volume $238.5K · 24h volume $850 · Liquidity $19.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.4% (No 96.7%), with $238.5K traded in total and $850 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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