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Fed & Interest Rates Odds on Polymarket

Updated November 9, 2026 · 52 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 52 live Fed & Interest Rates markets with $291.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in December? (25 bps increase 76.5%), followed by How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? (0 (0 bps) 98%), Fed Decision in January? (No change 77.5%).

Federal Reserve decisions: cuts and hikes at each FOMC meeting, the path of rates and the Fed chair. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

🏦 Fed rate odds by meeting: every upcoming FOMC decision in one table (cut, hold, hike) with the market-implied change in basis points.

🇪🇸 Versión en español · 🇧🇷 Versão em português

Live Fed & Interest Rates markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase 76.5%—$157.9KDec 10, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps) 98%+0.1 pts$41.4KJan 1, 2027
Fed Decision in January?No change 77.5%+4.0 pts$27.3KJan 28, 2027
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike 75.5%—$19.9KDec 9, 2026
Reserve Bank of India Decision in February?25 bps increase 65.5%+10.0 pts$7.7KFeb 5, 2027
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?2 (50 bps) 77.5%+4.0 pts$7.5KJan 1, 2027
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 75.5%—$6.0KDec 10, 2026
Fed Decision in April?No change 65%+6.0 pts$3.6KApr 28, 2027
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)Pause-Hike-Pause 70.5%-1.5 pts$2.3KJan 27, 2027
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in November?5.06% 29%-6.0 pts$1.9KDec 1, 2026
Fed rate cut?By July 2027 Meeting 47.5%+0.5 pts$1.9KJan 29, 2028
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?0 73%+3.5 pts$1.8KDec 10, 2026
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?4.90% 33%-11.0 pts$1.6KDec 31, 2026
Bank of England decision in December?No change 58%+4.0 pts$1.3KDec 17, 2026
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.55% 75%+8.5 pts$1.3KDec 31, 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?4.25% 76.3%+2.4 pts$847Jan 1, 2027
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.3% 22.5%-7.0 pts$742Jan 1, 2027
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 5.25% 89%—$736Dec 31, 2026
Bank of England Decision in February?25 bps increase 76.5%+10.5 pts$567Feb 4, 2027
Fed Decision in March?No change 53%-1.0 pts$564Mar 18, 2027
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 5.20% 58.5%-2.0 pts$474Dec 1, 2026
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November?4.83% 50%—$434Dec 1, 2026
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.40% 62%-0.5 pts$385Dec 31, 2026
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 4.44% 68%-1.5 pts$373Dec 1, 2026
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 4.59% 60.5%-8.0 pts$367Dec 1, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.8% 70.5%+2.0 pts$352Jan 1, 2027
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↑ 4.25% 77%-0.1 pts$278Dec 31, 2026
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.40% 64.5%-7.0 pts$262Jan 1, 2027
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 4.82% 66.5%-5.0 pts$246Dec 1, 2026
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November?5.42% 31.5%-5.5 pts$218Dec 1, 2026
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November?4.68% 54.5%+2.0 pts$168Dec 1, 2026
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?0 56%-0.5 pts$163Jan 28, 2027
Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?Yes 13.5%+6.5 pts$157Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of India decision in December25 bps increase 78%+1.0 pts$138Dec 4, 2026
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 20262.6-2.8% 30.4%+4.0 pts$137Feb 1, 2027
ECB Interest Rates: December 202625 bps increase 84.5%—$136Dec 17, 2026
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Yes 2.1%+0.1 pts$56Jan 1, 2027
Bank of England Decision in March?No Change 63%-2.5 pts$26Mar 18, 2027
ECB Interest Rates: March 2027No Change 54.5%—$20Mar 18, 2027
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor?By December 31 2.6%+0.1 pts$7Jan 1, 2027

12 smaller markets are not shown; all 52 are in the JSON data.

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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How these markets work: Fed decision markets · Economic data markets · Parlay-style markets.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Fed & Interest Rates odds on Polymarket today?

As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 52 live Fed & Interest Rates markets with $291.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in December? (25 bps increase 76.5%), followed by How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? (0 (0 bps) 98%), Fed Decision in January? (No change 77.5%).

How many Fed & Interest Rates markets are open on Polymarket?

52 live markets as of November 9, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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