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Fed & Interest Rates Odds on Polymarket
Updated September 23, 2026 · 41 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Federal Reserve decisions: cuts and hikes at each FOMC meeting, the path of rates and the Fed chair. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Fed & Interest Rates markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase 67.5% | +17.0 pts | $1.02M | Oct 29, 2026 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 96.5% | +0.3 pts | $35.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.1% 87% | +17.0 pts | $32.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 70.5% | +3.0 pts | $31.5K | Dec 10, 2026 |
| Bank of England decision in November? | 25 bps increase 69.5% | +5.0 pts | $29.0K | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 88.5% | +3.0 pts | $27.9K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 | No change 58.5% | -9.5 pts | $18.4K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? | 2 (50 bps) 56.5% | -5.5 pts | $15.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) | Hike–Hike–Hike 35% | +7.5 pts | $15.8K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.40% 80% | +8.0 pts | $10.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September? | 5.05% 91.5% | +45.0 pts | $8.9K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September? | Below 5.24% 8.5% | -26.5 pts | $7.6K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? | Below 4.6% 31% | -13.5 pts | $7.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? | Below 5.10% 46% | -3.5 pts | $6.6K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | Yes 2.1% | -0.7 pts | $6.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September? | 5.39% 63% | +42.0 pts | $5.3K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? | ↑ 4.25% 85.3% | +6.3 pts | $5.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September? | Below 4.76% 3.6% | -4.0 pts | $3.8K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 4.90% 84.2% | +16.4 pts | $3.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut? | By July 2027 Meeting 48.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.2K | Jan 29, 2028 |
| What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? | 4.25% 57.6% | +4.8 pts | $2.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September? | 4.90% 96% | +34.0 pts | $1.3K | Sep 30, 2026 |
| How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? | Below 4.50% 46% | -12.5 pts | $1.3K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor? | By December 31 4.5% | +0.3 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September? | Below 4.43% 4.7% | +2.6 pts | $928 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Trump publicly insults Warsh? | By December 31 17% | -7.5 pts | $728 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting? | 0 35.5% | +2.5 pts | $543 | Jan 28, 2027 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 56.5% | — | $300 | Jan 28, 2027 |
| Reserve Bank of India decision in October | 25 bps increase 80% | +1.0 pts | $256 | Oct 7, 2026 |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting? | 0 50.5% | +18.0 pts | $256 | Dec 10, 2026 |
| Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026 | 3.0%+ 58.6% | -0.4 pts | $168 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? | December 31 10.5% | -2.0 pts | $99 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 | 25 bps increase 59% | -1.5 pts | $75 | Dec 17, 2026 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member? | By December 31 10.5% | +0.5 pts | $13 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Jerome Powell federally charged? | By December 31, 2026 1.8% | — | $10 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? | June 30, 2027 9.5% | — | $5 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? | Yes 3.0% | -0.1 pts | $1 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? | Yes 1.5% | — | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed abolished before 2027? | Yes 1.7% | +0.1 pts | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many dissent at the October Fed meeting? | 0 43.5% | +0.5 pts | $0 | Oct 28, 2026 |
1 smaller markets are not shown; all 41 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Fed & Interest Rates odds on Polymarket today?
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 41 live Fed & Interest Rates markets with $1.30M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (25 bps increase 67.5%), followed by How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? (0 (0 bps) 96.5%), How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? (5.1% 87%).
How many Fed & Interest Rates markets are open on Polymarket?
41 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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