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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% at 98.3%, followed by Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% at 1.6%. The market has $161.5K in total volume and $600 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | 98.3% | +0.2 pts | $10.8K |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 1.6% | -0.2 pts | $6.2K |
| Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5% (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $36.1K |
| Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5% (settled) | 0.0% | -0.7 pts | $32.5K |
| Other (settled) | 0.0% | -10.1 pts | $26.1K |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5% (settled) | 0.0% | -8.4 pts | $15.6K |
| Christopher Waller & Rate ≤ 2.5% (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $11.8K |
| Christopher Waller & Rate > 2.5% (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $11.3K |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5% (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $11.1K |
Total volume $161.5K · 24h volume $600 · Liquidity $13.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% ■ Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% at 98.3%, followed by Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% at 1.6%. The market has $161.5K in total volume and $600 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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