September 16, 2026
Three very different shapes showed up on the board in the September 16 snapshot: a monetary policy question that has stopped arguing with itself, a legislative market bleeding out on the calendar, and a long-dated political book that moved on almost no money. Each one tells you something different about how prediction market odds actually form — and none of them are trade recommendations.
The headline number: a 25 bps increase after the September 2026 meeting sits at 87.5% Yes, with $4.26M traded in 24 hours against $37.7M lifetime volume. The seven-day change is the part worth staring at: +34.0 points. A week ago this was a genuinely contested book. It isn't anymore.
What makes this interesting for polymarket analysis isn't the level — it's how cleanly the rest of the ladder collapsed around it: