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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 10.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.1%. The market has $32.2K in total volume and $810 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 10.5% | — | $8.7K |
| By September 30 | 0.1% | -2.9 pts | $1.8K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $12.3K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $5.5K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $3.9K |
Total volume $32.2K · 24h volume $810 · Liquidity $2.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds · Politics odds
As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 10.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.1%. The market has $32.2K in total volume and $810 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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