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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: December 9, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 06:03 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 90.5% (No 9.5%), with $151.2K traded in total and $23.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90.5% | +4.0 pts | $151.2K |
| No | 9.5% | -4.0 pts | — |
Total volume $151.2K · 24h volume $23.1K · Liquidity $195.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 06:03 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 90.5% (No 9.5%), with $151.2K traded in total and $23.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 9, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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